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Isaias makes North Carolina landfall as Category 1 Hurricane; Mid-Atlantic to Saint Lawrence Valley Remain Under Threat Tuesday - GC Capital Ideas

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Hurricane Isaias made landfall at 11:15PM EDT Monday August 3 as a category 1 hurricane near Ocean Isle, NC. Maximum sustained winds over 75 mph with peak gusts to near 100 mph were observed. As Isaias accelerates north through the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US Tuesday, attention turns to inland flooding in the I-95 megalopolis, tornado activity to the northeast of the storm center, moderate coastal storm surge, power outages along the East Coast and an expansion of the wind field as Isaias transitions into an extratropical storm tomorrow over the Canadian Saint Lawrence Valley.

Isaias Position, Windfield, Watches/Warnings and 3-Day Forecast. Source: NHC.
Most Likely Arrival Time and Probability of Tropical Storm Force Winds. Source: NHC.

Ongoing Impacts for the Mid-Atlantic & Northeast US

As Isaias accelerates into the Northeast US, the storm is only slowly losing intensity as it begins the process of transitioning into an extratropical storm.  Several key concerns are illustrated below.

Excessive rainfall assessment for inland flash flood potential. Source: NOAA.
Assessment of maximum sustained winds over the next 24 hours as Isaias accelerates northward. Source: NWS.
An ongoing threat of tornadoes is high as the rainbands of Isaias come onshore from the Atlantic. Active tornado watches as of 10AM EDT are highlighted in the counties in pink. Source: Allison House / NWS.

Initial Assessment of the Carolinas

Radar image of Isaias at landfall. Source: National Weather Service.

The peak wind report was from a WeatherFlow sensor in the Cape Fear River, NC, which had a peak gust at 99 mph. Meanwhile, the maximum sustained wind recorded at landfall was Oak Island, NC where a sustained wind of 76 mph was observed. These statistics rank Isaias as the second strongest hurricane to impact this portion of the North Carolina coastline in the last 7 years, behind Hurricane Florence from 2018.

Peak wind gusts associated with hurricanes and tropical storms to impact southern North Carolina since 2014. Source: National Weather Service, Wilmington, NC.

Guy Carpenter meteorologist Jeff Schmidt was in the eyewall of Isaias in Carolina Beach, NC and has observed slight damage as indicated below.

Early Tuesday morning coastal assessment of damage at Carolina Beach, NC. Source: Guy Carpenter Meteorologist Jeff Schmidt.

Power outages will continue to build throughout the day as damaging winds continue further north. As of 10AM EDT, initial media reports indicate over 600,000 customers were without power from North Carolina through New Jersey.

Additional Resources

This will be the last Weather Sentinel post issued on Isaias.  For further information on real-time impacts and official statements, please utilize the following links as updates will be frequent over the next several days regarding impacts and personal safety. A post-event CAT-i report on Isaias will be issued by Friday August 7.

Local National Weather Service Office Statements and Products for Isaias

National Hurricane Center

Environment Canada Hurricane Site

National Weather Service

NWS Weather Prediction Center




August 04, 2020 at 09:30PM
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Isaias makes North Carolina landfall as Category 1 Hurricane; Mid-Atlantic to Saint Lawrence Valley Remain Under Threat Tuesday - GC Capital Ideas

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